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1. Executive Summary
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the strategic defence relationship between the United Kingdom and Türkiye, specifically from the vantage point of the Turkish defence industry. The examination reveals a complex and multifaceted partnership, one that is simultaneously a powerful catalyst for growth and a source of significant long-term vulnerabilities. The core conclusion is that while collaboration with a top-tier NATO partner like the UK offers substantial benefits, particularly in accelerating technological development and enhancing global credibility, it also introduces an inherent tension with Türkiye’s foundational objective of complete industrial independence.
The primary advantages for the Turkish defence sector are rooted in gaining access to advanced engineering expertise, as exemplified by BAE Systems’ involvement in the TAI TF Kaan fighter jet program. This access de-risks and accelerates ambitious indigenous projects, a critical step for a nation rapidly advancing its defence capabilities. Furthermore, aligning with the UK—a major defence power—lends international legitimacy to Turkish products and provides a crucial alternative to traditional suppliers, notably from the United States and other European nations.
Conversely, the partnership’s drawbacks stem from the risk of a new form of external dependency. While the goal is self-sufficiency, a reliance on foreign intellectual property and high-tech components for critical systems, such as advanced fighter jets, could create a strategic vulnerability. The UK’s new defence industrial strategy, which is explicitly focused on “backing British jobs” and “sovereign capability,” creates a potential for friction, as its primary motivation for collaboration appears to be sustaining its own industrial base through exports. This divergence in core objectives means the partnership may be more transactional than reciprocal, potentially limiting the full extent of technology transfer. Ultimately, the partnership is a strategic asset for Türkiye, but it is one that demands careful management to maximize benefits while mitigating the risks to its long-term industrial autonomy.
2. Introduction: The Evolving Strategic Context of UK-Türkiye Defence Relations
2.1. Türkiye’s Vision: The National Defence Industry Strategy
Türkiye’s defence industrial policy is defined by an overarching and unwavering commitment to achieving self-reliance. This strategic imperative has driven a remarkable transformation of the sector over the past decade. By 2024, the nation was meeting more than 70 percent of its defence needs with domestic production, a figure that is projected to exceed 80 percent by 2025. This rapid increase is supported by a robust ecosystem of over 3,500 companies actively engaged in more than 1,100 projects. The commitment to indigenous development is further underscored by a projected annual research and development (R&D) budget that will reach $3 billion by 2025.
This focus on internal capacity has yielded significant results, with exports surging to a record high of over $7 billion in 2024, distributing more than 300 different defence products to approximately 180 countries. Notable indigenous platforms, such as the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the TAI TF Kaan fighter jet, and the Altay Main Battle Tank, exemplify this drive for technological advancement and self-sufficiency.
However, a fundamental paradox exists within this strategy. While Türkiye’s stated goal is “complete independence” and the local component of its products has surpassed 80 percent, the industry’s continued growth remains reliant on external partnerships for certain high-tech systems. This dependency is a significant vulnerability, particularly in times of geopolitical tension or supply chain disruptions. The pursuit of indigenous production, therefore, is not an isolationist policy; rather, it strategically necessitates collaboration with foreign partners to acquire or co-develop the critical technologies that are currently lacking. These partnerships, like the one with the UK, are not merely commercial transactions but are integral to Türkiye’s long-term independence strategy by providing a pathway to acquire the very capabilities it seeks to master.
2.2. The UK’s ‘NATO First’ and ‘Sovereign Capability’ Policies
The UK’s strategic approach to defence and industry is undergoing a significant pivot, outlined in its Strategic Defence Review 2025 and National Security Strategy 2025. The overarching theme is a “NATO First” policy, designed to reinforce its role as a key leader within the alliance in an era of geopolitical uncertainty and great power competition. This is supported by a historic pledge to increase defence spending, with a commitment to reach 5 percent of GDP annually on national security, a generational increase that will have a considerable impact on the strength of the alliance.
Running parallel to this “NATO First” policy is a clear domestic agenda articulated in the Defence Industrial Strategy 2025. This strategy frames defence as an “engine for growth,” with an explicit focus on “backing British jobs, British industry and British innovation”. A key mechanism for this is the creation of the new UK Defence Innovation (UKDI) organisation, which has a ringfenced annual budget of at least £400 million and is tasked with rapidly adopting new technology from the private sector. This approach aims to secure the UK’s “sovereign capabilities,” ensuring its freedom of action and operational advantage.
This dual focus on alliance leadership and domestic industrial health gives rise to a particular approach to defence exports. The UK views major export deals as a strategic act to sustain its own industrial base. The potential multi-billion-pound export of Typhoon fighter jets to Türkiye is a prime example of this policy in action. The deal is publicly framed not just as a means to strengthen NATO’s collective defence, but as a crucial step to “secure thousands of skilled UK jobs” and “sustain and protect 20,000 UK jobs” involved in the Typhoon programme. This framing suggests that while the partnership is politically aligned through NATO, the industrial-economic dimension is driven by a sell-to-sustain model rather than a co-develop-to-share one. This has direct implications for Türkiye’s long-term goal of acquiring and mastering technology, as the UK’s primary objective is to secure its own domestic economic and employment goals.
| Company | 2025 Defense News Top 100 Ranking | 2024 Defense Revenue (approx.) | Primary Field of Activity |
| Aselsan | 43rd | $3.54 billion | Electronics, radar, communication systems |
| Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) | 47th | $2.2 billion | Aerospace platforms, fighter jets, UAVs |
| Roketsan | 71st | $1.55 billion | Missiles, rockets, and munitions |
| ASFAT | 78th | $1.28 billion | Naval platforms and modernization |
| Makine ve Kimya Endüstrisi (MKE) | 80th | N/A | Ammunition and heavy weapons |
3.1. Fifth-Generation Fighter Jet Development: The TAI TF Kaan Programme
The TAI TF Kaan, formerly known as the TF-X, represents the pinnacle of Türkiye’s defence industrial ambitions. The program seeks to develop a stealth, twin-engine, all-weather air superiority fighter jet entirely indigenously. The aircraft had its maiden flight in February 2024, with the production of the first block of aircraft (Block-1) scheduled for 2025 and deliveries to the Turkish Air Force planned between 2030 and 2033.
A central pillar of this program is the collaboration with BAE Systems. In a deal signed in 2017, valued at £100 million, the UK firm committed to providing “engineering assistance” and acting as a “design consultancy”. This partnership is intended to accelerate the project and provide TAI with the necessary expertise for the complex design and integration challenges of a fifth-generation platform, a challenge that even the United States has faced.
A careful examination of the nature of BAE Systems’ involvement, however, reveals a critical distinction between “consultancy” and a full-fledged “partnership.” The language used, such as “engineering assistance” and “design consultancy,” implies that the UK is providing expertise and support, but is likely retaining control over core, high-tech intellectual property (IP). This is in line with the UK’s sovereign capability goals and is a pattern seen in other international fighter jet development programs, such as the US barring the transfer of key radar technology to South Korea for its KFX program. While this collaboration is a significant advantage for Türkiye in terms of accelerating the project, it also reinforces a long-term dependency on a foreign partner for the most sensitive and advanced components. The success of the program’s indigenous nature remains tied to the willingness of the UK to share its most valuable IP, creating a potential vulnerability in the future.
3.2. Air Combat Capability: The Eurofighter Typhoon Acquisition
Beyond co-development, a major element of the UK-Türkiye defence relationship is the potential multi-billion-pound deal for the export of Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Türkiye. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed in July 2025, taking the two countries “one step closer to a full agreement on Typhoon,” with an expected order of around 40 jets.
This potential sale is a direct consequence of a prior strategic setback for Türkiye. The nation was a partner in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and had ordered 100 aircraft, a program in which the UK produced 15 percent of the value of every jet. Türkiye’s removal from the program created a significant capability gap in its air force. The proposed Typhoon acquisition represents a strategic realignment for both nations. For Türkiye, it is a critical opportunity to secure a modern, high-end combat fleet and fill the void left by the F-35 cancellation. For the UK, it is a chance to secure the first major Typhoon export order since 2017, bolstering its industrial base and sustaining thousands of jobs.
This transaction demonstrates the UK’s enduring value as a defence partner. When other avenues, particularly with the US, were closed, the UK emerged as a willing and capable supplier of advanced combat platforms. This ability to provide off-the-shelf, high-end capabilities is a significant advantage for Türkiye, reinforcing its strategic flexibility in a complex geopolitical environment.
3.3. Unmanned Systems and AI: Baykar’s Partnerships
The unmanned systems sector is a domain where Türkiye has established itself as a global leader, reportedly dominating around 65 percent of the world market for armed and unarmed UAVs since 2018. This success is built on advanced technological capabilities held by both state-owned and private companies, with Baykar being a particularly notable player.
While UK-Türkiye collaboration in this area has included UK arms companies assisting in the development of Turkish armed drones, a recent development highlights Türkiye’s strategic diversification. In March 2025, Baykar signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Italian defence company Leonardo to form a joint venture for unmanned aerial systems (UAS), to be based in Italy. The partnership will leverage Baykar’s battle-proven platforms and Leonardo’s expertise in mission systems, payloads, and European aerospace certification.
This decision to partner with Italy over the UK suggests a deliberate strategy to broaden the European defence relationships beyond a single key ally. A potential reason for this is the desire to gain access to specific technologies and markets without the potential IP restrictions that might be imposed by the UK, as some observers have commented on such concerns in UK collaborations. This strategic move allows Türkiye to acquire critical components for its next-generation drones, such as C4I (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence) and AI, while also capitalizing on European market opportunities. This highlights Türkiye’s sophisticated approach to partnership: it is not placing all of its eggs in one basket, a clear advantage for its long-term industrial independence.
| Project | Nature of Collaboration | Primary Companies Involved | Turkish Stated Purpose | UK Stated Purpose |
| TAI TF Kaan | Technology transfer & design consultancy | TAI (Türkiye), BAE Systems (UK) | Develop indigenous stealth fighter, achieve “complete independence” | Provide engineering assistance, sustain UK industrial base |
| Eurofighter Typhoon | Potential export deal | Turkish government, UK government, BAE Systems | Acquire advanced combat air capability, fill post-F-35 void | Secure new export order, sustain thousands of UK jobs |
| FNSS Armored Vehicles | Joint venture & licensed production | BAE Systems (49%), Nurol Holding (Türkiye) | Gain design and manufacturing expertise for land platforms | Leverage Turkish manufacturing base, access global markets |
4. The Pros for the Turkish Defence Industry: Catalysts for Growth and Self-Sufficiency
4.1. Accelerating Technological Advancement and Capability Development
A primary benefit of the partnership is the rapid acquisition of high-end engineering expertise. The collaboration on the TAI TF Kaan is a prime example, where BAE Systems’ involvement provides “design and manufacturing expertise” that is crucial for de-risking a project of this scale and complexity. The partnership helps Türkiye bridge the technology gap for fifth-generation capabilities, a challenge that few nations have overcome. This is not limited to air platforms. The joint venture between BAE Systems and Turkish company Nurol Holding, known as FNSS, demonstrates a successful model of technology transfer through licensed production. FNSS has delivered 4,000 armoured vehicles worldwide, showing how UK designs and technology have been integrated into a thriving Turkish company to achieve export success. This form of collaboration directly supports Türkiye’s indigenous production goals.
4.2. Enhancing Global Market Credibility and Export Reach
Partnering with a major NATO defence industrial power like the UK significantly enhances the credibility of Türkiye’s defence industry on the global stage. An agreement such as the potential Typhoon sale, which is framed as strengthening “NATO’s collective deterrence,” effectively provides an endorsement of Türkiye’s strategic importance and industrial capabilities. This stamp of approval can open doors to new markets, particularly in high-income regions like the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Furthermore, the partnership facilitates co-marketing opportunities for products, allowing Turkish companies to leverage the UK’s established global sales network to expand their own export reach.
4.3. Diversifying Supply Chains and Reducing Reliance on Traditional Partners
The UK provides a critical alternative to traditional US and EU defence suppliers, which can be prone to imposing export restrictions or political conditions. The fact that the UK is not constrained by EU conditions is a major strategic advantage for Türkiye, especially in the wake of its removal from the F-35 program. This partnership offers Türkiye a degree of strategic flexibility to pursue its independent foreign policy, allowing it to acquire advanced military technology without the political conditions often imposed by Western suppliers. This diversification strengthens Türkiye’s supply chain resilience and reduces its vulnerability to geopolitical pressures from a single source.
5. The Cons and Risks for the Turkish Defence Industry: Navigating Geopolitical and Industrial Complexities
5.1. The Vulnerability of External Dependency
While the partnership with the UK is a catalyst for growth, it also risks creating a new form of external dependency. Despite Türkiye’s goal of “complete independence,” the TAI TF Kaan program’s reliance on UK engineering and design expertise means its success and continued development are intrinsically tied to BAE Systems’ ongoing involvement. The Turkish defence industry still relies on foreign suppliers for many high-tech systems, and a disruption in this supply chain—should relations deteriorate—could create a strategic vulnerability. The use of “Open General Export Licences” (OGELs) for a significant proportion of UK arms exports to Türkiye further complicates this, as it can obscure the true extent of this dependency and its potential risks.
5.2. Navigating the UK’s ‘Buy National’ and ‘Sovereign Capability’ Imperatives
The core strategies of the two nations, while aligned on a macro-level within NATO, are fundamentally at odds on an industrial level. While Türkiye aims for a fully independent industrial base, the UK’s new Defence Industrial Strategy is explicitly focused on “backing British jobs” and developing a resilient UK industrial base. This strategic divergence creates an inherent tension that could limit the depth of genuine, reciprocal co-development and technology transfer. The UK’s approach is geared towards securing its own domestic economic and employment goals, and future, more lucrative contracts may be reserved for UK-based companies. This could limit the full potential for Türkiye to leverage the partnership to truly achieve its self-sufficiency goals.
5.3. The Geopolitical and Reputational Risks of Export Ambitions
Türkiye’s defence industry has a track record of exporting its products to a wide range of countries, including those in “politically sensitive regions,” and its export policy is noted to have “even less restraint than the UK”. As the UK becomes a more prominent partner, it risks being associated with these less-restrained export practices, which could create diplomatic friction, particularly with other NATO allies. While the UK’s “NATO First” policy provides a strong foundation for cooperation, it also implies that Türkiye’s independent foreign policy and export strategy could face pressure if they are perceived as diverging from the alliance’s collective interests.
5.4. The Challenges of Managing Large-Scale International Projects
The development of a fifth-generation fighter jet like the TAI TF Kaan is a monumental undertaking, and even with BAE Systems’ assistance, its technical success is “far from assured”. New entrants to this domain typically face extensive delays and rising costs, a reality that even technologically advanced nations like the US have encountered. This introduces a significant risk of program delays and cost overruns, which could strain the partnership. Furthermore, the UK’s own ambitious Strategic Defence Review faces fiscal challenges , and a shift in domestic priorities could impact its ability to fully support the partnership, underscoring the potential for external factors to disrupt the collaboration.
| Category | Pros for the Turkish Defence Industry | Cons for the Turkish Defence Industry |
| Technological Advancement | Access to high-end engineering expertise from a leading defence contractor (BAE Systems) for ambitious projects like TAI TF Kaan. | Risk of creating a new form of external dependency on foreign IP for high-tech subsystems. |
| Market and Credibility | Enhanced global credibility and a “stamp of approval” from a top-tier NATO partner, facilitating access to new export markets. | Potential for reputational damage or diplomatic friction due to a perceived divergence in export restraint and foreign policy. |
| Strategic Flexibility | Diversification of supply chains away from traditional US and EU suppliers, providing an alternative for critical platforms and technology. | The UK’s domestic-focused Sovereign Capability and Buy National policies could limit the extent of true technology transfer. |
| Project Viability | Accelerates the development of complex indigenous platforms, de-risking ambitious projects with proven expertise. | Inherent technical risks of large-scale projects, with potential for cost overruns, delays, and reliance on foreign commitment |
6. Conclusion: A Balanced Assessment and Future Outlook
The UK-Türkiye defence partnership is a complex, yet strategically vital, relationship for both nations. From the perspective of the Turkish defence industry, it represents a powerful force multiplier that can accelerate its growth, enhance its international standing, and provide a critical hedge against potential political or supply chain disruptions from other allies. The collaboration on the TAI TF Kaan and the potential Typhoon acquisition are clear indicators of the UK’s value as a key provider of both co-development expertise and off-the-shelf combat capabilities.
However, this partnership is not a panacea for Türkiye’s technological vulnerabilities. The fundamental tension between Türkiye’s ambition for “complete independence” and the UK’s focus on sustaining its domestic industrial base through exports must be carefully navigated. The risk of perpetual dependency on foreign components for the most critical systems, along with the potential for geopolitical friction arising from differing foreign policies, presents a clear and present challenge.
7. Strategic Recommendations for the Turkish Defence Industry
Based on this analysis, the following strategic recommendations are provided to the Turkish defence industry to maximize the benefits of its partnership with the UK while mitigating the inherent risks:
- Diversify Partnerships and Avoid Over-Reliance: The Turkish defence industry should continue to pursue strategic partnerships with multiple nations, as exemplified by Baykar’s joint venture with Italy’s Leonardo. This approach prevents an over-reliance on a single partner, ensuring access to diverse technologies and markets.
- Prioritize Reciprocal Technology Transfer: In all future agreements, Türkiye must prioritize explicit and unambiguous clauses for reciprocal technology transfer and the sharing of intellectual property. The goal should be to move beyond a “consultancy” model to a genuine co-development framework that actively contributes to its long-term industrial independence.
- Leverage the Partnership for High-Value, Third-Party Exports: The partnership with the UK should be strategically leveraged to gain credibility and market access in high-value, third-country markets, particularly those in the Middle East and Asia. Collaboration with a top-tier NATO power can be a significant mark of quality and strategic alignment, which can lead to larger export opportunities for Turkish defence firms.
- Proactively Manage Geopolitical Tensions: The Turkish government and defence industry should maintain open and transparent communication with the UK regarding their independent foreign policy and export decisions. This is crucial to proactively manage potential diplomatic friction and ensure that Türkiye’s pursuit of its own interests does not jeopardize key defence partnerships within the NATO alliance.
